SIF Moldova (SIF2) Chart review

SIF Moldova finished the 2011 with a huge profit of 191 Mil RON, buoyed by the selling of their participation at the BCR (Romania Commercial Bank) to the major stockholder Erste Bank.
At a Price to Earnings Ratio SIF Moldova stands at 3,33, one of the lowest valuation from Romanian stock market.
The stock price seems like is making a pennant around 1,30 and I'm expecting the price to continue the upside move to 1,45. From Elliott Wave point of view looks like the price just finished a massive correction zig-zag ABC and it's lunching to a new impulsive wave to reach on the long term 1,88.

Good luck everybody.

Next Week Important Economic Data

Next week I'm expecting the Manufacturing Indexes from all around the world (China, Europe, USA) to put make a mark on the development of financial markets. Friday being a job report in USA, most of the markets participants will wait for that number to see the strength of the american economy, if it's getting steam or if it's slowing down. I'm expecting an in line with the expectations number, around +140,000 newly jobs created and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 8,5%.
In Romania, National Bank Guvernor Isarescu will decide the interest rate on Thursday. I'm expecting a no change in the idea of awaiting more data from the economy and the inflation, although another 25 basis point cut to 5,50 % it won't be a big surprise.

Have a great week everybody.

Monday 30 January:
                               - US -  Personal Spending & Personal Income
                               - EU -  Economic Summit
                               - ROM - Economic activities trends
Tuesday 31 January:
                               - Quarterly results from: Exxon, Pfizer, UPS, Amazon
                               - US -  S&P Case Schiller 20 House Price Index
                               - US -  Consumer Confidence
                               - US -  Chicago Manufacturing Index
                               - EU -  German retail sales
                               - EU -  Unemployment rate
                               - ROM - Unemployment rate
                               - CHINA - Manufacturing Index
Wednesday 1 February:
                                - Quarterly results from: Qualcomm, Whirlpool, Franklin Resources
                                - US -  ADP - Non-farm employment change
                                - US -  ISM Manufacturing Index
                                - US -  Total vehicle sales
                                - EU -  Final Manufacturing Index
                                - EU -  Consumer Price Index - Flash estimate
                                - ROM - International reserves published by National Bank of Romania
Thursday 2 February:
                                - Quarterly results from: Dow Chemical, Mastercard, Merck, Starwood
                                - US -  Chain Store Sales
                                - ROM - Romania National Bank - Interest Rate Decision
Friday 3 February:
                                - US -  Unemployment rate
                                - US -  Non-farm payrolls
                                - US -  Factory orders
                                - US -  ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
                                - EU - Final Services Index
                                - EU -  Retail sales
                                - GBP - Services Index
             

OMV Petrom (SNP) Chart

It is at the line of the first resistance at 0,330

OMV Petrom chart looks like forming a double bottom, implying there are more to the upside. Let's see what it will do at the firs resistance and then decide the trade. If it will run through it then the next resistance will be around 0,36. If not, it might test again the bottom around 0,275

Happy trading.

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Chart

The SIF Oltenia chart looks like an ascending triangle in the forming with resistance at 1,20 RON and support around 1,10  RON.
If the price will break to the upside than it will have a first Target Price of 1,40 RON. If it will break to the downside i expect to revisit the October 2011 Lows around 0,82 RON.
Because the international markets are up-trending I give more chances to the upside breakout. The best thing to do is to wait for the breakout and trade in the direction of the break-out.

Good luck to everybody.

FOMC Statement

For immediate release:


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.  In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
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Quite a surprise the projection of the Federal Fund Rate timeframe. " likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."
Nothing surprising in the rest of the statement.

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) top 10 holdings

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) top 10 holdings as of 31 December 2011:


23,09% of  Hidroelectrica
22,84% of  OMV Petrom
 8,44% of  Romgaz
 3,61% of  Complexul Energetic Turceni
 3,51% of  Nuclearelectrica
 2,72% of  Transgaz
 2,34% of GDF Suez Energy
 2,33% of Enel Distributie Muntenia
 2,23% of CN Aeroporturi Bucuresti
 2,19% of Enel Distributie Banat

Their NAV (Net Asset Value) stands at 1,0788 RON compared with the 0,47 RON the share price, making an almost 60% discount of their Book Value. So as i said in my previous post, this stock looks rather cheap.

About Fondul Proprietatea (FP)

As you can see from the grafic, after exactly one year of trending down, on 5 January 2012 Fondul Proprietatea broke the descending line with a GAP, implying that the downtrend was finished and a new uptrend is taking place. We are three weeks away from that breakaway GAP and  the price reached the first resistance line were i expect some sluggishness. At 0.468 at the close of Tuesday, Fondul Proprietatea carries: an 11,86 current Price Earnings Ratio and a 0,433 Price to Book Value. Which means it's still low valued and can have more to the upside. I expect the big resistance to be around 0,5 RON.

Happy trading everybody.

Press coverage

Press coverage
I'm happy to see that my name gets mentioned in the financial press. Here is my quote:

"This move will bring fresh air into the dusty lungs of the BSE (Bucharest Stock Exchange). Lucian Anghel is a highly reputed economist and already the Romanian stock market has jumped following his succesful election. Stere Farmache sailed the BSE ship through tough storms, with positive and negative results, but after 16 years it was time to hand over command of the BSE to a younger, ambitious economist. I see this change as a positive one for the stock market in general and await more details regarding Anghel's plans for the BSE," says Vasile Szakacs, private consultant on stock market investments and owner of www.consultantabursa.ro"

The complete article can be found here:
http://business-review.ro/money/new-year-rings-the-bell-of-change-at-the-bse/13186/

Next Week Important Economic Data:

Next Week Important Economic Data:

Next week there are high hopes in the market for good macroeconomic data and great quarterly results. My calculations on some collateral data says that next week economic data will surprise to the downside. The Friday GDP is expected at +3,1%, based on my preliminary data of Trade Balance, Business Inventories, Retail Sales, Industrial&Manufacturing Production and other data I think the GDP will come lower at around 2 to 2,5%. Also the Thursday durable goods number I think they will come lower than the estimate. Estimates are for +1,0 and my calculation shows a +0,2% gain. We will see. It is possible on Wednesday at the FOMC meeting to hear the first thoughts regarding raising interest rates in USA. I think chairman Ben Bernanke will clarify this at the press conference which follows the announcement.

In Romania next week, i assume the media will continually reflect the protests from Universitatii Square. So far these protests haven't had any impact on the Bucharest Stock Exchange or on the RON currency. The Institute of Statistics will publish on Friday the Building Permits for the month of December. Have a great week everybody.

Monday 23 January Quarterly results from: Haliburton, Western Digital

Tuesday 24 January Quarterly results from: Apple, AMD, Dupont Johnson&Johnson, McDonalds,   Travelers, Verizon, Yahoo
 USA - 21:00 - Obama State of the Union Speech
 EU    -  3:00 - 4:00  Flash Manufacturing PMI
          - All Day - ECOFIN Meeting
          -  5:00 - Industrial New Orders

Wednesday 25 January Quarterly results from: Boeing, United Technologies, Xerox
 USA - 12:30 - FOMC Interest rate decision + Statement
          - 14:15 - Ben Bernanke Press Conference
 EU    -   4:00 - German IFO
          - All Day - Davos - World Economic Forum - Day 1
          -   8:15 - Mario Draghi Speech
 GBP  -   4:30 - Preliminary GDP q/q
           -  6:00 - CBI Indutrial Order Expectations

Thursday 26 January Quarterly results from: 3M, AT&T, Caterpillar
 USA -  8:30 Durable Goods Orders
          -  8:30 Unemployment Claims
          - 10:00 New Home Sales
          - 10:00 CB Leading Indicators
  EU   - All Day - Davos - World Economic Forum - Day 2
 GBP  - 6:00 CBI Realized Sales

Friday 27 January Quarterly results from: Chevron, Ford, Procter&Gamble
 USA - 8:30 Advance GDP q/q
  EU   - All Day - Davos - World Economic Forum - Day 3