We've launched the new www.consultantabursa.ro

Dear friends,

As we announced a couple of days ago, the website www.consultantabursa.ro has undergone some structural changes and is now ready for visitors.
A team of people worked tirelessly for the new version to be ready today.
The new website brings you all the latest news on the Romanian stock market, studies and analysis, beginners' corner, profit optimization advice and much more.
This new platform is more engaging with the visitor, allowing you to comment, rate, share a specific article with friends or translate it into another language. There's also a place where visitors can find and buy the latest reports on specific companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.
We're looking forward to www.consultantabursa.ro soon becoming the number one portal for investors, analysts and beginners who wants to know the latest news on the  Romanian capital markets so they can make informed investments.

Visit the new website, have your say and I look forward to hear your feedback.

Have a great day,
Vasile Szakacs
Head Analyst and Founder

PS: This blog will close and all the latest news you'll find at www.consultantabursa.ro

In 3-4 Days We're Re-launching

Dear friends,

The time has come to set us up for a face lift and for the use of an advanced web platform.

In three to four days we will re-launch the web site www.consultantabursa.ro in a different format, in which you will find the latest news, analysis of Romanian companies, beginners corner, profit optimization, companies reports and many more. 

This blog will close and all the news and information will be found on the main page of www.consultantabursa.ro

I have to thank firstly to my clients who made this re-launch possible and also thank to all the viewers of this blog for their help, feedback and support, and see you soon on www.consultantabursa.ro

Have a great week-end everybody!

Vasile Szakacs

Property Fund (FP) +40% in less than two months

Property Fund (FP) managed to reach today 0,60 after an impressive uptrend that started at the beginning of the year when it broke out of the previous downtrend.

In less then two months managed to gain 40% from 0.43 to 0.60. All thanks to the announcement of better dividends and the state listing on Bucharest Stock Exchange of Romgaz and Hidroelectrica, which make together approximately 30% of their total Net Asset Value.

Property Fund (FP) is the most liquid company of Bucharest Stock Exchange, with an average 17 Mil RON daily transactions.

Erste Group (EBS) full year 2011 results

Erste Group returns to profitability in Q4 2011 and cuts net loss for 2011 to 718,9 MIL EUR. Some highlights:

• Core Tier 1 Ratio - at 9,4% (in compliance with Basel 2.5 regulation)
• Shareholders equity amounted at 12,0 billion EUR
• Total assets at 210,0 billion EUR up 2,1% year on year
• Loan to deposit ratio stood at 113,3%
• Net interest income up 2,4% from 5,439 to 5,569 mil EUR
• Net fee and commission income declined by 3,0% from 1,842 to 1,787 mil EUR
• Net trading result 122,3 mil EUR - declined by 62% than 321,9 mil EUR in 2010 (due to changes in the fair value of the CDS portfolio)
• Operating income of 7,478 mil EUR decreased by 1,78% from 7,603 mil EUR in 2010
• The cost/income ratio stood at 51,5%
• Risk costs were up 12,2% from 155 basis points of average customer loan in 2010 to 168 basis point in 2011, primarily due to the need for additional risk provisions in Hungary

Overall the 2011 results were improved by a stronger Q4. The daily chart price is below:

Great chart patterns we can see on the price chart. We had a busted Diamond TOP with an upside breakout at  133 which morphed into a Head & Shoulder (on the chart LS means Left Shoulder, H means Head and RS means Right Shoulder) with the neckline at 140. A very powerfull downtrend had occurred after the downside breakout, probably when Andreas Treichl CEO of ERSTE Bank announced the losses they will encounter this year. It stopped at 45 and managed to create an Ascending Triangle with the height of 15. Sometimes Ascending Triangles can perform as Bottoms in a price chart. After escaped upward from this triangle, met the first Price Target at 75 (15+60) given by the height of the triangle added to the break-out line. In the last weeks this upward momentum had faded away, morphing so far into a Bullish Flag showed also by the MACD indicator, implying that further gains might be ahead.

Have a great day everybody!

Property Fund (FP) Continue moving higher

As I posted on 16 February http://consultantabursa.blogspot.com/2012/02/property-fund-fp-chart-review.html more gains indeed appeared on FP chart.

So far we can't see any sign of an exhaustion of this uptrend. Correction will appear but it is very important the shape, length time wise and the volume that these correction produce. And based on all this to judge if it will be a correction of the uptrend or a market turnaround.

All the best.

Next week important economic data

Monday 27 February

• US - Quarterly results from Lowes, Priceline 
• US - Pending Home Sales
• US - Dallas Manufacturing Index

Tuesday 28 February

• US - Quarterly results from Autozone, Ecolab
• US - Durable Goods Orders
• US - S&P Case Schiller House Price Index
• US - CB Consumer Confidence
• US - Richmond Manufacturing Index
• GBP - CBI Realized Sales

Wednesday 29 February

• ROM - Quarterly results from Erste Bank
• US - Quarterly results from Costco, Staples
• US - Preliminary GDP
• US - Chicago PMI
• US - Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks
• EUR - German Unemployment Rate
• CHINA - Manufacturing Index

Thursday 1 March

• ROM - International reserves published by BNR
• US - Total Vehicle Sales
• US - Chain Store Sales
• US - Personal Spending & Personal Income
• US - ISM Manufacturing Index
• EUR - Final Manufacturing Index
• GBP - Manufacturing Index
• EUR - Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate

Friday 2 March

• EUR - German Retail Sales
• EUR - Producer Price Index
• CHINA - Non-manufacturing Index

Next week I'm expecting  the positive news from the macroeconomic data to continue pushing the markets higher. The International context has become stable lately and the markets all around the world are moving higher and higher. The Romanian markets took a breathing pause in the last week so it is very plausible to restart moving higher in the coming week. It will be very interesting to watch on Wednesday the press conference of Erste Bank, knowing the big losses they've encounter this year, and what their outlook for the 2012 will be.

Have a great week everybody!

New feature: "Transaction Opportunity"

Hello everybody,

I am very pleased to announce the launch of a new feature on the www.consultantabursa.ro website.
It is called "Transaction Opportunity" - a chance to gain from market moves.

Transaction Opportunity:

What it is? It is a document outlining a suggested trade for my clients on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, put in a very simple way: Buy here, Sell here. This document was put together by the ConsultantaBursa.ro team. It is based on in-depth research into the macroeconomic context, fundamental company data, technical analysis of the chart price and Elliott wave.

Such Transaction Opportunities do not come along very often. Based on my personal experience, good investment trades occur every one to three months.

To give you a better understanding of it, the team at consultantabursa.ro have made available their latest report free of charge. So, please go on www.consultantabursa.ro download it, have a read through and if you have any comments or feedback we will be very delighted to hear from you.

For future partnerships,
Vasile Szakacs
Head Analyst

OMV Petrom (SNP) 2011 Results and Chart review

Today OMV Petrom (SNP) published the 2011 results, coming out like this:

Sales 22.614 Mil RON +21% year on year
Net Income 3.757 Mil RON +71% year on year

Impressive results, and at the share price of today closing of 0.41 having a PER  of  6.18, making it a very cheap share.
The announcement that arrived during midday that in partnership with ExxonMobil Exploration they made a deep water gas discovery offshore Romania near Neptun, contributed to the +5,1% gain showed at the end of the day.

The weekly chart looks like this with a big long term descending line, which the buyers has to clear and set the SNP on a definitive ascending trend for years to come.

Knowing the great management they have and also that the major stockholders are the Austrian company OMV with 51%, Romanian Government 20,6% and Property Fund with 20%, with only 8% remaining to  transact, any big institutional fund that wants exposure to this company won't find too many shares available to buy, so it will create a big buying pressure.
I think the upward momentum on OMV Petrom (SNP) will continue also for the next days, but first the buyers have to clear the 0.42 resistance.

Have a great day everybody!

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) 60min Chart Review

This is a 60 MIN Chart, which shows some divergences between the price and volume and MACD (momentum indicator). The price reached the previous high on lower volume, implying not too many market participants are willing to commit to shares at this prices. So a correction here is very plausible taking the prices back to around 1.30.

Have a great day everybody!

20-24 February Important Economic Data

Monday 20 Feb 

• ROM - Trade Balance
• US - Markets closed due to President's Day

Tuesday 21 Feb 

• CHINA - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
• US - Quarterly results from: Dell, Home Depot, Kraft Foods, Macy's, Wal-Mart

Wednesday 22 Feb

• ROM - Quarterly results from: OMV Petrom (SNP)
• EU - Flash Manufacturing PMI 
• EU - Industrial New Orders
• US - Existing Home Sales
• US - Quarterly results from: Hewlett Packard, Limited Brands, TJX Companies, Fluor

Thursday 23 Feb

• ROM - Monetary indicators published by Romanian National Bank
• EU - German IFO Business Climate
• GBP - CBI Industrial Order Expectations
• US - Unemployment Claims
• US - Quarterly results from: AIG, GAP, Kohl's, Safeway. Target

Friday 24 Feb

• GBP - Revised GDP
• US - Revised Consumer Sentiment
• US - New Home Sales
• US - Quarterly results from: JC Penney

Next week I'm expecting the news coming from Greece to continue making headlines and adding volatility into the markets. China's manufacturing PMI is an important data that most of the traders will watch and will also show the level of the slowdown in the Chinese economy. On Wednesday the Euro Zone manufacturing index is expected to come at better levels implying that the recession in the Euro Area is not as bad as some commentators and analysts have feared. If nothing bad comes out of Greece I'm expecting the markets to continue moving higher, even though there are some divergences that appear on charts implying a weakness of this uptrend momentum.

Have a great week everybody!

DESIF5_MAR futures at Sibiu Stock Exchange

At Sibiu Stock Exchange is the only place were you can bet the market will fall and gain from it in Romanian markets (it is called going SHORT, or opening SHORT positions). Here you're not buying or selling shares, instead you are buying or selling contracts of 1.000 shares of the underlying financial instrument. This is also called a derivative.
The most popular futures contract is the one that follows the movement of SIF Oltenia listed at Bucharest Stock Exchange (SIF5) and has 4 expiry dates March, June, September and December. The closest expiry date being the one that gets transacted the most.
Here is the chart, at the bottom of the chart you will see with brown the daily volume and the blue line being the number of open contracts.

In Technical Analysis of futures contracts, if the price rise but is not followed by the volume and a gain in the Open Contracts positions, it is called a divergence, meaning the players who had long position (gaining from the markets going up, the opposite of short position) are happy to close their contracts at this levels and not open other ones. They more are on the wait and see attitude, that's why also the volume is low.


The price chart looks like it formed an Inverse Head & Shoulder with a price target around 1.65 or the upper line of the ascending channel around 1.51. I am more in favor for a pullback to retest the neckline of the inverse Head&Shoulder around 1.26 followed by a continued uptrend towards new highs.


Have a great week-end everybody!


If you are interested into investing in Romanian Stock Market check my web-site www.consultantabursa.ro and the services that I'm offering into helping you achieving your goals. Has an English section.

Transelectrica (TEL) Chart Review and Recommendation

• From December 2007 until March 2009 - descending channel, buying shares is insanity on an descending channel - best trade is to wait for a break-out of this channel
• 16 April 2009 - The price breaks this descending channel - Here you can start buying shares, in small steps and incremental 
• January 2010 - It forms an Inverse Head&Shoulder, which is a formation of trend changing, implying the downtrend has finished and a new uptrend is on the way - Price Target for this formation being the height of the Head&Shoulder added to the breakout point. In our case the height was 6 (14 -8) added to the breakout around 14, giving a price target of 20.
• April 2010 - the price reaches 22 and then starts coming down to retest and validate the Head&Shoulder neckline
• February 2010 until June 2011 - Transelectrica price chart formed a "rising wedge" which implies the buyers aren't forceful enough to push the price on an powerful uptrend. It broke down from this pattern in July 2011 and re-testing the Head&Shoulder neckline.

Right now the price will oscillate between the 14 RON neckline support and 21 RON given by the break-out of the rising wedge formation. Where the price will take it it will show the future trend.
My advice is BUY if the price moves over 22 RON and SELL if the price breaks the neckline at 14 RON.


Have a great day everybody!

Property Fund (FP) chart review

After the break of the one year long downtrend FP chart makes a small FLAG which implies more gains to the upside. Maybe at 0.55 or 0.60 area.

Cheers everybody!

Fibonacci levels on BET-FI

After any uptrend appears corrections. Nobody knows with precision the amplitude in time and price of this corrections. But if it is a correction it should stop at some levels and restart the trend moving higher. Fibonacci levels represent retracement level of 38,2% , 50,0% and 61,8% of the previous trend.

For BET-FI very important level to see if the market rebounds is around 22.000, which is given also by the 50 and 200 days moving averages and also by the uptrend line.
If the price breaks down the level around 20.000 than this wasn't a correction and was a trend change and the prices will go more down to retest the lows around 16.000
The MACD indicator shows a powerful momentum up and is normal in bull markets for this indicator to reach new highs on an uptrend and then came down to neutral in the corrections. This is the case right now, it reached  new highs and right now seems like its turning implying corrections ahead.


Have a great day everybody!

Bucharest Stock Exchange 15 Feb 2012 Day Review

Today the capital markets were filled with a plethora of economic news and were very volatile:

Internationally:

•          Overnight China central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said "the country would keep investing in debt issued by euro-zone governments" which helped the international sentiment at the markets open
•          Greece saga continued with rumors that opposition leader Samaras will sign a letter to the troika (ECB, IMF and EU Commission) and will commit to the tough austerity reforms  -  towards the middle of the day this rumors came true and helped the positive sentiment.
•          French and German GDP came better than expected at +0,2% and -0,2% Q/Q
•          In UK the unemployment rate came in line with the estimate at 8,4%
•          Euro zone GDP for the fourth quarter came in at -0,3% Q/Q
•          In US the Empire State Manufacturing Index for the month of February came in at 19,5
•          The Industrial Production in US for the month of January came unchanged

In Romania:

• Romanian GDP for fourth quarter shrunk 0,2% from the previous quarter but gained 2,5% for the full year 2011 compared to the previous year
• Property Fund (FP) ended the year 2011 with a 543 Mil RON Net Profit and proposed a dividend to the shareholders of 0.038 which means at the current share price of 0.528 RON a Net dividend yield of 7,2%
• Transelectrica (TEL) posted 90.2 Mil RON Net Profit for the full year 2011
• SIF Transilvania (SIF3) posted a huge 207 Mil RON Net Profit buoyed by the selling of their BCR participation
• Transgaz (TGN) posted a 392 Mil RON Net Profit for the full year 2011
• SIF Moldova (SIF2) announced an increase in the shareholder equity with the sum of 103.817.917 Mil RON through the release of a new 1.038.179.176 shares with a nominal value of 0.1 RON per share
• Prodplast (PPL) has been reported buying 904.500 shares of SIF Oltenia (SIF5) at a 1.45 medium price per share

The Romanian markets started higher, propelled by the international markets.  But sellers appeared quickly and pushed the market in the negative territory. At mid-day the markets were flat but as the day progressed the markets moved deeper into negative territory, pushed down also by rumors that EU will delay its bailout plan to Greece, and stayed into negative teriory with the main indexes BET and BET-FI closing at -1,09% and -1,78%

Romanian markets gained an average 40% from the start of the year and after this impressive rally in just a month and a half, it's normal for sellers to become more powerful and cash the profits. There are also some other momentum indicators on charts that shows some weakening of this remarkable uptrend. But so far any pullback of this movement  can be considered a correction until it breaks some important levels.  Around 4.500 on the BET Index and 22.000 on the BET-FI.

Next you'll see the 60 minute charts of the main Romanian Indexes BET and BET-FI with a short description of their components:

BET Index is the main index of Bucharest Stock Exchange -It contains the followings with their respective weigh on the index:

·         OMV Petrom (SNP)                             21,51%

·         Property Fund (FP)                              21,21%

·         Transilvania Bank (TLV)                       20,18%

·         BRD Groupe Societe Generale (BRD)   17,64%

·         Transgaz (TGN)                                   7,22%

·         Bursa de Valori (BVB)                          3,44%

·         Transelectrica (TEL)                             3,36%

·         Biofarm (BIO)                                      2,82%

·        Azomures (AZO)                                  2,12%

·         SSIF Broker (BRK)                              0,51%

BET-FI is the second most important index of Bucharest Stock Exchange - The FI at the end comes from Financial. It covers the five SIFs (Financial Investment Societies) and recently has been added the Property Fund. So this is what is contains with their weigh on the index.


·         Property Fund (FP)                                         27,32%
·         SIF Oltenia (SIF5)                                          16,66%
·         SIF Moldova (SIF2)                                       15,27%
·         SIF Transilvania (SIF3)                                   14,63%
·         SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1)                               13,68%
·         SIF Muntenia (SIF4)                                      12,44%

Have a great day everybody!

BRD full year 2011 results and comments

Here is the link with the presentation (they don't believe in the foreign investor so this is in Romanian): http://www.bvb.ro/infocont/infocont12/BRD140212A.pdf


They've made a total of 465 Mil RON Net Profit for the full year 2011.
Right now the share price of BRD costs 11,25 RON which makes BRD having a PER (Price to Earnings Ratio) of 17,09. This means that if you would pay 11,25 RON for one share of BRD and BRD will distribute all their Net Profit as dividends, you will have to wait 17 years to make the 11,25 RON that you've paid for one share.
And this PER you compare it with other companies from this sector:

• Barclays PLC - listed at London Stock Exchange has a PER of 9,87
• Societe Generale (the mother company) - listed at Paris Stock Exchange has a PER of 6,96
• Raiffeisen Bank - listed at Vienna Stock Exchange has a PER of 6,03
• Banco Santander - listed at Madrid Stock Exchange has a PER of 7,99
• ING Groep - listed at Amsterdam Stock Exchange has a PER of 6,80

Of course BRD won't distribute their whole Net Profit as dividends, usually they distribute around 30 to 40%, which will make this price even more expensive. But this is the fundamental of the BRD, let's have a look at the price chart (this is a weekly chart, which means that one bar on the chart represents one week):

As you can see the price swings from 16 to 10 and back starting April 2010. The RSI (Relative Strength Index - which shows overbought or oversold conditions of a security) went oversold and then came back to neutral, which is typically of bear markets. 

Conclusion: If the international context becomes increasingly worrying, than I assume the price of BRD will break to the downside this lateral movement on the way to retest the lows around 4 RON. But if the international markets will stay up and moving higher I think the market participants won't look at the fundamentals and will push the price higher to reach again the 16 RON and probably break it to the upside to reach 22 RON.

Happy trading everybody!

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Happy days may come to an end

As you can see from the chart SIF Oltenia (SIF5) price is hitting the most important downtrend line. All this impresive +40% in one month and a half can come to an end. Adding to this, the fact that tomorrow after the market closes will be released the full year 2011 results in which SIF5 will say they've made 83 Mil RON Net Profit, I think at least the price will stop here and take a break. If it will go down the price should stop around 1,30 and from here to continue its swings higher.

Tommorow also I'm expecting bad Retail Sales from US for January, so we'll see how the market will play out.


Good luck everybody!

Bucharest Stock Exchange - Long term strategic priorities

Here is the link with the presentation: http://www.bvb.ro/infocont/infocont12/BVB130212_en.pdf


At the press conference BSE board members and the president Lucian Anghel, outlined their long term view, which is:

• developing the Stock Exchange into a regional hub
• alternative to bank credits for companies
• listing new companies
• support for the Romanian government into privatization of different utilities companies
• launching three major services until 2015 (they haven't said which are)

They have a great and ambitious plan and high targets, which is a good thing, but the devil is in the details, in the implementation of this high targets. I personally wish them good luck in their plans, and i believe they need to focus on the followings:

• margin transactions - in this way from 10-12 Mil EURO per day volume they can reach, 100-120 Mil EURO per day
• market makers for all their derivatives products (futures contracts or options) - when the markets starts falling to be easy to buy PUT options on the main indexes (BET and BET-FI) and in this way not to be forced to sell your shares creating an even bigger snowball. Definition of Put Option = an option contract giving the owner the right, but not the obligation to sell a specified amount of an underlying security at a specified price within a specified time. Read more at: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp#ixzz1mGHL0cFx
• listing more companies from various industry sectors - IT was mentioned during press conference and I can add retail sales, various discretionary companies
• improving the image of stock markets in general and BSE in particular

Lucian Anghel started outlining the time factor "a woman needs nine months to give birth to a child, but you can't have nine women to give birth to a child in one month" - and I think every market participants will give enough time to Lucian Anghel to implement his vision and stategy.

All the best everybody.

Next week important economic data

Monday 13 February 

- ROM - 4th quarter and full year 2011 results from: Azomures (AZO),   BRD - Groupe Societe Generale (BRD), SIF Oltenia (SIF5)

- ROM – Balance of Payments

Tuesday 14 February
- ROM -  4th quarter and full year 2011 results from: Alro (ALR), Amonil (AMO), Antibiotice (ATB), Biofarm (BIO), Condmag  (COMI), Dafora (DAFR), Electromagnetica (ELMA), Property Fund (FP), Impact (IMP), Oltchim (OLT), Prodplast (PPL), Rompetrol Rafinare (RRC), Zentiva (SCD), SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1), SIF Transilvania (SIF3), SIF Muntenia (SIF4), Socep (SOCP), Turbomecanica (TBM), Transelectrica (TEL), Transgaz (TGN), Vrancart (VNC)
                                 - US - Retail Sales
                                 - GBP - Consumer Price Index
                                 - EU - Industrial Production
                                 - EU - German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Wednesday 15 February
  - ROM  - 4th quarter and full year 2011 results from: Banca Carpatica (BCC)
                                  - US - Industrial Production
                                  - US - FOMC (Federal Open Market Comity) Minutes
                                   - EU - ECOFIN Meeting
                                   - EU - Preliminary GDP

Thursday 16 February
                                  - US - Producer price index
                                  - US - Ben Bernanke speaks
                                  - US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday 17 February
                                 - US - Consumer Price Index
                                 - GBP - Retail Sales

Next week the big news should be made by the never ending saga of Greece, followed by the FOMC minutes in which we will find out the latest discussions between Federal Comittee members regarding the interest rates and their projections.
In Romania the market players will wait for  fourth quarter and full year 2011 results of listed companies. I'm expecting positive results that will proper the market higher.

Great week everybody!

Banca Transilvania (TLV) chart

After the Head & Shoulder top figure created between January and August 2011, Banca Transilvania, break it down from 1,16 and entered into a downtrend. This downtrend took the figure of a Falling Wedge, which implied the sellers exhausted their ammunition and could enter in an uptrend soon. This uptrend had started with a Breakaway GAP at 0,916, which implies a new uptrend is taking place and we might see a Runaway GAP and an Exhaustion GAP. So far the price stopped at 1,07 but the real price resistance being at 1,15.

Happy trading!

SIF Moldova (SIF2) chart review

The price of SIF2 hits the resistance line at 1,45 and seems like it stopped here. I predict that for the time, the price is due for a small correction, given also the high MACD line (moving average convergence divergence) which is due for a turn. From an Elliott Wave point of you implies we are in a third wave which is very powerfull and should reach at least 1,88.

Happy trading !

Market reaction on Ungureanu approval

Market reaction on Ungureanu approval

This is SIF5 and as you can see, the markets were expecting a positive outcome by itching higher into the parliament approval.

Romanian markets awaiting the new government

Romanian markets awaiting the new government

Small variations on the markets, as market players are waiting for the recently appointed Mr. Ungureanu to be invested as prime minister by the  parliament.
If he's cabinet will fall, I think we'll see -10% on most of the companies by the end of the day. If he will be invested the markets will continue their upswing.

Good luck everybody.

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Chart review

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Chart review:

The price has a huge resistance around 1,33 area. One comes from the neckline of the Head & Shoulders and the other comes from the ascending line of the rising wedge. The buyers needs to break decisively the 1,33 resistance area. If they can't and the price starts moving lower, every market participant will see this rising wedge chart pattern and will sell it untill the price comes back to 1,00.
Fundamentally SIF5 has 83 Mil RON Net Profit for the 2011, which makes it a 9,08 PER (Price to Earnings Ratio) with a dividend yield 6 to 8% . This will be settled at the Shareholders meeting from April 2012. So fundamentally is not something that is screaming buy.



Good luck everybody.

Market reaction to prime minister Emil Boc resignation

As you can see, it had a bad reaction initially when the BETFI index reached -3,5% and was followed by the comeback on the idea that a new government will be installed pretty soon.

And here it is a bigger scale of the index:

Next week important economic data

For the next week, the economic calendar is pretty light and probably the biggest news in the markets will be the outcome of the Greece saga, followed by the China inflation data on Wednesday and interest rate decisions on Thursday in UK and EURO area.
I'm expecting no change in both cases, even though some are expecting more quantitative easing from the Bank of England, but in the light of the latest surprisingly good economic data from the economy, I don't expect more asset purchases.
In Romania there is nothing scheduled on the economic front. Starting 10 February Romanian companies will posts their 4 quarter and full year 2011 results. If nothing badly will come out of Greece negotiations I'm expecting the Romanian markets to continue their up swing.

Have a great week everybody.

Monday 6 February:    
                 - Quarterly results from Hasbro, Humana, Loews, Sysco, Yum Brands
                 - EU - German Factory Orders
Tuesday 7 February:
                 - Quarterly results from Coca-Cola, Walt Disney, Western Union
                 - EU - German Industrial Production

Wednesday 8 February:  

                 - Quarterly results from Cisco, Computer Sciences, News Corp, Sprint Nextel, Time Warner, Visa 

                 - EU - German Trade Balance
                  - CHINA - Consumer Price Index
                  - CHINA - Producer Price Index
Thursday 9 February:  
                 - Quarterly results from Pepsico
                 - GBP - Manufacturing and Industrial Production
                 - GBP - Official Bank Rate
                 - EU - Minimum Bid Rate
Friday 10 February:  
                 - Romania quarterly results: Bursa de valori (BVB), Compa (CMP), Teraplast (TRP)
                 - EU - French Industrial Production
                 - USA - Trade Balance

BET-FI Chart

BET-FI Index it is an index which comprise the followings:
Alongside being the weigh that they have in the index.

• Property Fond (FP)                 - 28,90%
• SIF Oltenia (SIF5)                  - 15,90%
• SIF Moldova (SIF2)               - 15,81%
• SIF Transilvania (SIF3)           - 15,21%
• SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1)        - 12,33%
• SIF Muntenia (SIF 4)              - 11,85%

The Chart has the look of a rising wedge, which implies the prices will run out of steam pretty soon and will return to where it started. That is around 18.000 points.

SIF Moldova (SIF2) Chart review

SIF Moldova finished the 2011 with a huge profit of 191 Mil RON, buoyed by the selling of their participation at the BCR (Romania Commercial Bank) to the major stockholder Erste Bank.
At a Price to Earnings Ratio SIF Moldova stands at 3,33, one of the lowest valuation from Romanian stock market.
The stock price seems like is making a pennant around 1,30 and I'm expecting the price to continue the upside move to 1,45. From Elliott Wave point of view looks like the price just finished a massive correction zig-zag ABC and it's lunching to a new impulsive wave to reach on the long term 1,88.

Good luck everybody.

Next Week Important Economic Data

Next week I'm expecting the Manufacturing Indexes from all around the world (China, Europe, USA) to put make a mark on the development of financial markets. Friday being a job report in USA, most of the markets participants will wait for that number to see the strength of the american economy, if it's getting steam or if it's slowing down. I'm expecting an in line with the expectations number, around +140,000 newly jobs created and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 8,5%.
In Romania, National Bank Guvernor Isarescu will decide the interest rate on Thursday. I'm expecting a no change in the idea of awaiting more data from the economy and the inflation, although another 25 basis point cut to 5,50 % it won't be a big surprise.

Have a great week everybody.

Monday 30 January:
                               - US -  Personal Spending & Personal Income
                               - EU -  Economic Summit
                               - ROM - Economic activities trends
Tuesday 31 January:
                               - Quarterly results from: Exxon, Pfizer, UPS, Amazon
                               - US -  S&P Case Schiller 20 House Price Index
                               - US -  Consumer Confidence
                               - US -  Chicago Manufacturing Index
                               - EU -  German retail sales
                               - EU -  Unemployment rate
                               - ROM - Unemployment rate
                               - CHINA - Manufacturing Index
Wednesday 1 February:
                                - Quarterly results from: Qualcomm, Whirlpool, Franklin Resources
                                - US -  ADP - Non-farm employment change
                                - US -  ISM Manufacturing Index
                                - US -  Total vehicle sales
                                - EU -  Final Manufacturing Index
                                - EU -  Consumer Price Index - Flash estimate
                                - ROM - International reserves published by National Bank of Romania
Thursday 2 February:
                                - Quarterly results from: Dow Chemical, Mastercard, Merck, Starwood
                                - US -  Chain Store Sales
                                - ROM - Romania National Bank - Interest Rate Decision
Friday 3 February:
                                - US -  Unemployment rate
                                - US -  Non-farm payrolls
                                - US -  Factory orders
                                - US -  ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
                                - EU - Final Services Index
                                - EU -  Retail sales
                                - GBP - Services Index
             

OMV Petrom (SNP) Chart

It is at the line of the first resistance at 0,330

OMV Petrom chart looks like forming a double bottom, implying there are more to the upside. Let's see what it will do at the firs resistance and then decide the trade. If it will run through it then the next resistance will be around 0,36. If not, it might test again the bottom around 0,275

Happy trading.

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Chart

The SIF Oltenia chart looks like an ascending triangle in the forming with resistance at 1,20 RON and support around 1,10  RON.
If the price will break to the upside than it will have a first Target Price of 1,40 RON. If it will break to the downside i expect to revisit the October 2011 Lows around 0,82 RON.
Because the international markets are up-trending I give more chances to the upside breakout. The best thing to do is to wait for the breakout and trade in the direction of the break-out.

Good luck to everybody.

FOMC Statement

For immediate release:


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.  In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
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Quite a surprise the projection of the Federal Fund Rate timeframe. " likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."
Nothing surprising in the rest of the statement.

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) top 10 holdings

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) top 10 holdings as of 31 December 2011:


23,09% of  Hidroelectrica
22,84% of  OMV Petrom
 8,44% of  Romgaz
 3,61% of  Complexul Energetic Turceni
 3,51% of  Nuclearelectrica
 2,72% of  Transgaz
 2,34% of GDF Suez Energy
 2,33% of Enel Distributie Muntenia
 2,23% of CN Aeroporturi Bucuresti
 2,19% of Enel Distributie Banat

Their NAV (Net Asset Value) stands at 1,0788 RON compared with the 0,47 RON the share price, making an almost 60% discount of their Book Value. So as i said in my previous post, this stock looks rather cheap.

About Fondul Proprietatea (FP)

As you can see from the grafic, after exactly one year of trending down, on 5 January 2012 Fondul Proprietatea broke the descending line with a GAP, implying that the downtrend was finished and a new uptrend is taking place. We are three weeks away from that breakaway GAP and  the price reached the first resistance line were i expect some sluggishness. At 0.468 at the close of Tuesday, Fondul Proprietatea carries: an 11,86 current Price Earnings Ratio and a 0,433 Price to Book Value. Which means it's still low valued and can have more to the upside. I expect the big resistance to be around 0,5 RON.

Happy trading everybody.

Press coverage

Press coverage
I'm happy to see that my name gets mentioned in the financial press. Here is my quote:

"This move will bring fresh air into the dusty lungs of the BSE (Bucharest Stock Exchange). Lucian Anghel is a highly reputed economist and already the Romanian stock market has jumped following his succesful election. Stere Farmache sailed the BSE ship through tough storms, with positive and negative results, but after 16 years it was time to hand over command of the BSE to a younger, ambitious economist. I see this change as a positive one for the stock market in general and await more details regarding Anghel's plans for the BSE," says Vasile Szakacs, private consultant on stock market investments and owner of www.consultantabursa.ro"

The complete article can be found here:
http://business-review.ro/money/new-year-rings-the-bell-of-change-at-the-bse/13186/

Next Week Important Economic Data:

Next Week Important Economic Data:

Next week there are high hopes in the market for good macroeconomic data and great quarterly results. My calculations on some collateral data says that next week economic data will surprise to the downside. The Friday GDP is expected at +3,1%, based on my preliminary data of Trade Balance, Business Inventories, Retail Sales, Industrial&Manufacturing Production and other data I think the GDP will come lower at around 2 to 2,5%. Also the Thursday durable goods number I think they will come lower than the estimate. Estimates are for +1,0 and my calculation shows a +0,2% gain. We will see. It is possible on Wednesday at the FOMC meeting to hear the first thoughts regarding raising interest rates in USA. I think chairman Ben Bernanke will clarify this at the press conference which follows the announcement.

In Romania next week, i assume the media will continually reflect the protests from Universitatii Square. So far these protests haven't had any impact on the Bucharest Stock Exchange or on the RON currency. The Institute of Statistics will publish on Friday the Building Permits for the month of December. Have a great week everybody.

Monday 23 January Quarterly results from: Haliburton, Western Digital

Tuesday 24 January Quarterly results from: Apple, AMD, Dupont Johnson&Johnson, McDonalds,   Travelers, Verizon, Yahoo
 USA - 21:00 - Obama State of the Union Speech
 EU    -  3:00 - 4:00  Flash Manufacturing PMI
          - All Day - ECOFIN Meeting
          -  5:00 - Industrial New Orders

Wednesday 25 January Quarterly results from: Boeing, United Technologies, Xerox
 USA - 12:30 - FOMC Interest rate decision + Statement
          - 14:15 - Ben Bernanke Press Conference
 EU    -   4:00 - German IFO
          - All Day - Davos - World Economic Forum - Day 1
          -   8:15 - Mario Draghi Speech
 GBP  -   4:30 - Preliminary GDP q/q
           -  6:00 - CBI Indutrial Order Expectations

Thursday 26 January Quarterly results from: 3M, AT&T, Caterpillar
 USA -  8:30 Durable Goods Orders
          -  8:30 Unemployment Claims
          - 10:00 New Home Sales
          - 10:00 CB Leading Indicators
  EU   - All Day - Davos - World Economic Forum - Day 2
 GBP  - 6:00 CBI Realized Sales

Friday 27 January Quarterly results from: Chevron, Ford, Procter&Gamble
 USA - 8:30 Advance GDP q/q
  EU   - All Day - Davos - World Economic Forum - Day 3