We've launched the new www.consultantabursa.ro

Dear friends,

As we announced a couple of days ago, the website www.consultantabursa.ro has undergone some structural changes and is now ready for visitors.
A team of people worked tirelessly for the new version to be ready today.
The new website brings you all the latest news on the Romanian stock market, studies and analysis, beginners' corner, profit optimization advice and much more.
This new platform is more engaging with the visitor, allowing you to comment, rate, share a specific article with friends or translate it into another language. There's also a place where visitors can find and buy the latest reports on specific companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.
We're looking forward to www.consultantabursa.ro soon becoming the number one portal for investors, analysts and beginners who wants to know the latest news on the  Romanian capital markets so they can make informed investments.

Visit the new website, have your say and I look forward to hear your feedback.

Have a great day,
Vasile Szakacs
Head Analyst and Founder

PS: This blog will close and all the latest news you'll find at www.consultantabursa.ro

In 3-4 Days We're Re-launching

Dear friends,

The time has come to set us up for a face lift and for the use of an advanced web platform.

In three to four days we will re-launch the web site www.consultantabursa.ro in a different format, in which you will find the latest news, analysis of Romanian companies, beginners corner, profit optimization, companies reports and many more. 

This blog will close and all the news and information will be found on the main page of www.consultantabursa.ro

I have to thank firstly to my clients who made this re-launch possible and also thank to all the viewers of this blog for their help, feedback and support, and see you soon on www.consultantabursa.ro

Have a great week-end everybody!

Vasile Szakacs

Property Fund (FP) +40% in less than two months

Property Fund (FP) managed to reach today 0,60 after an impressive uptrend that started at the beginning of the year when it broke out of the previous downtrend.

In less then two months managed to gain 40% from 0.43 to 0.60. All thanks to the announcement of better dividends and the state listing on Bucharest Stock Exchange of Romgaz and Hidroelectrica, which make together approximately 30% of their total Net Asset Value.

Property Fund (FP) is the most liquid company of Bucharest Stock Exchange, with an average 17 Mil RON daily transactions.

Erste Group (EBS) full year 2011 results

Erste Group returns to profitability in Q4 2011 and cuts net loss for 2011 to 718,9 MIL EUR. Some highlights:

• Core Tier 1 Ratio - at 9,4% (in compliance with Basel 2.5 regulation)
• Shareholders equity amounted at 12,0 billion EUR
• Total assets at 210,0 billion EUR up 2,1% year on year
• Loan to deposit ratio stood at 113,3%
• Net interest income up 2,4% from 5,439 to 5,569 mil EUR
• Net fee and commission income declined by 3,0% from 1,842 to 1,787 mil EUR
• Net trading result 122,3 mil EUR - declined by 62% than 321,9 mil EUR in 2010 (due to changes in the fair value of the CDS portfolio)
• Operating income of 7,478 mil EUR decreased by 1,78% from 7,603 mil EUR in 2010
• The cost/income ratio stood at 51,5%
• Risk costs were up 12,2% from 155 basis points of average customer loan in 2010 to 168 basis point in 2011, primarily due to the need for additional risk provisions in Hungary

Overall the 2011 results were improved by a stronger Q4. The daily chart price is below:

Great chart patterns we can see on the price chart. We had a busted Diamond TOP with an upside breakout at  133 which morphed into a Head & Shoulder (on the chart LS means Left Shoulder, H means Head and RS means Right Shoulder) with the neckline at 140. A very powerfull downtrend had occurred after the downside breakout, probably when Andreas Treichl CEO of ERSTE Bank announced the losses they will encounter this year. It stopped at 45 and managed to create an Ascending Triangle with the height of 15. Sometimes Ascending Triangles can perform as Bottoms in a price chart. After escaped upward from this triangle, met the first Price Target at 75 (15+60) given by the height of the triangle added to the break-out line. In the last weeks this upward momentum had faded away, morphing so far into a Bullish Flag showed also by the MACD indicator, implying that further gains might be ahead.

Have a great day everybody!

Property Fund (FP) Continue moving higher

As I posted on 16 February http://consultantabursa.blogspot.com/2012/02/property-fund-fp-chart-review.html more gains indeed appeared on FP chart.

So far we can't see any sign of an exhaustion of this uptrend. Correction will appear but it is very important the shape, length time wise and the volume that these correction produce. And based on all this to judge if it will be a correction of the uptrend or a market turnaround.

All the best.

Next week important economic data

Monday 27 February

• US - Quarterly results from Lowes, Priceline 
• US - Pending Home Sales
• US - Dallas Manufacturing Index

Tuesday 28 February

• US - Quarterly results from Autozone, Ecolab
• US - Durable Goods Orders
• US - S&P Case Schiller House Price Index
• US - CB Consumer Confidence
• US - Richmond Manufacturing Index
• GBP - CBI Realized Sales

Wednesday 29 February

• ROM - Quarterly results from Erste Bank
• US - Quarterly results from Costco, Staples
• US - Preliminary GDP
• US - Chicago PMI
• US - Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks
• EUR - German Unemployment Rate
• CHINA - Manufacturing Index

Thursday 1 March

• ROM - International reserves published by BNR
• US - Total Vehicle Sales
• US - Chain Store Sales
• US - Personal Spending & Personal Income
• US - ISM Manufacturing Index
• EUR - Final Manufacturing Index
• GBP - Manufacturing Index
• EUR - Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate

Friday 2 March

• EUR - German Retail Sales
• EUR - Producer Price Index
• CHINA - Non-manufacturing Index

Next week I'm expecting  the positive news from the macroeconomic data to continue pushing the markets higher. The International context has become stable lately and the markets all around the world are moving higher and higher. The Romanian markets took a breathing pause in the last week so it is very plausible to restart moving higher in the coming week. It will be very interesting to watch on Wednesday the press conference of Erste Bank, knowing the big losses they've encounter this year, and what their outlook for the 2012 will be.

Have a great week everybody!

New feature: "Transaction Opportunity"

Hello everybody,

I am very pleased to announce the launch of a new feature on the www.consultantabursa.ro website.
It is called "Transaction Opportunity" - a chance to gain from market moves.

Transaction Opportunity:

What it is? It is a document outlining a suggested trade for my clients on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, put in a very simple way: Buy here, Sell here. This document was put together by the ConsultantaBursa.ro team. It is based on in-depth research into the macroeconomic context, fundamental company data, technical analysis of the chart price and Elliott wave.

Such Transaction Opportunities do not come along very often. Based on my personal experience, good investment trades occur every one to three months.

To give you a better understanding of it, the team at consultantabursa.ro have made available their latest report free of charge. So, please go on www.consultantabursa.ro download it, have a read through and if you have any comments or feedback we will be very delighted to hear from you.

For future partnerships,
Vasile Szakacs
Head Analyst

OMV Petrom (SNP) 2011 Results and Chart review

Today OMV Petrom (SNP) published the 2011 results, coming out like this:

Sales 22.614 Mil RON +21% year on year
Net Income 3.757 Mil RON +71% year on year

Impressive results, and at the share price of today closing of 0.41 having a PER  of  6.18, making it a very cheap share.
The announcement that arrived during midday that in partnership with ExxonMobil Exploration they made a deep water gas discovery offshore Romania near Neptun, contributed to the +5,1% gain showed at the end of the day.

The weekly chart looks like this with a big long term descending line, which the buyers has to clear and set the SNP on a definitive ascending trend for years to come.

Knowing the great management they have and also that the major stockholders are the Austrian company OMV with 51%, Romanian Government 20,6% and Property Fund with 20%, with only 8% remaining to  transact, any big institutional fund that wants exposure to this company won't find too many shares available to buy, so it will create a big buying pressure.
I think the upward momentum on OMV Petrom (SNP) will continue also for the next days, but first the buyers have to clear the 0.42 resistance.

Have a great day everybody!

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) 60min Chart Review

This is a 60 MIN Chart, which shows some divergences between the price and volume and MACD (momentum indicator). The price reached the previous high on lower volume, implying not too many market participants are willing to commit to shares at this prices. So a correction here is very plausible taking the prices back to around 1.30.

Have a great day everybody!

20-24 February Important Economic Data

Monday 20 Feb 

• ROM - Trade Balance
• US - Markets closed due to President's Day

Tuesday 21 Feb 

• CHINA - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
• US - Quarterly results from: Dell, Home Depot, Kraft Foods, Macy's, Wal-Mart

Wednesday 22 Feb

• ROM - Quarterly results from: OMV Petrom (SNP)
• EU - Flash Manufacturing PMI 
• EU - Industrial New Orders
• US - Existing Home Sales
• US - Quarterly results from: Hewlett Packard, Limited Brands, TJX Companies, Fluor

Thursday 23 Feb

• ROM - Monetary indicators published by Romanian National Bank
• EU - German IFO Business Climate
• GBP - CBI Industrial Order Expectations
• US - Unemployment Claims
• US - Quarterly results from: AIG, GAP, Kohl's, Safeway. Target

Friday 24 Feb

• GBP - Revised GDP
• US - Revised Consumer Sentiment
• US - New Home Sales
• US - Quarterly results from: JC Penney

Next week I'm expecting the news coming from Greece to continue making headlines and adding volatility into the markets. China's manufacturing PMI is an important data that most of the traders will watch and will also show the level of the slowdown in the Chinese economy. On Wednesday the Euro Zone manufacturing index is expected to come at better levels implying that the recession in the Euro Area is not as bad as some commentators and analysts have feared. If nothing bad comes out of Greece I'm expecting the markets to continue moving higher, even though there are some divergences that appear on charts implying a weakness of this uptrend momentum.

Have a great week everybody!

DESIF5_MAR futures at Sibiu Stock Exchange

At Sibiu Stock Exchange is the only place were you can bet the market will fall and gain from it in Romanian markets (it is called going SHORT, or opening SHORT positions). Here you're not buying or selling shares, instead you are buying or selling contracts of 1.000 shares of the underlying financial instrument. This is also called a derivative.
The most popular futures contract is the one that follows the movement of SIF Oltenia listed at Bucharest Stock Exchange (SIF5) and has 4 expiry dates March, June, September and December. The closest expiry date being the one that gets transacted the most.
Here is the chart, at the bottom of the chart you will see with brown the daily volume and the blue line being the number of open contracts.

In Technical Analysis of futures contracts, if the price rise but is not followed by the volume and a gain in the Open Contracts positions, it is called a divergence, meaning the players who had long position (gaining from the markets going up, the opposite of short position) are happy to close their contracts at this levels and not open other ones. They more are on the wait and see attitude, that's why also the volume is low.


The price chart looks like it formed an Inverse Head & Shoulder with a price target around 1.65 or the upper line of the ascending channel around 1.51. I am more in favor for a pullback to retest the neckline of the inverse Head&Shoulder around 1.26 followed by a continued uptrend towards new highs.


Have a great week-end everybody!


If you are interested into investing in Romanian Stock Market check my web-site www.consultantabursa.ro and the services that I'm offering into helping you achieving your goals. Has an English section.

Transelectrica (TEL) Chart Review and Recommendation

• From December 2007 until March 2009 - descending channel, buying shares is insanity on an descending channel - best trade is to wait for a break-out of this channel
• 16 April 2009 - The price breaks this descending channel - Here you can start buying shares, in small steps and incremental 
• January 2010 - It forms an Inverse Head&Shoulder, which is a formation of trend changing, implying the downtrend has finished and a new uptrend is on the way - Price Target for this formation being the height of the Head&Shoulder added to the breakout point. In our case the height was 6 (14 -8) added to the breakout around 14, giving a price target of 20.
• April 2010 - the price reaches 22 and then starts coming down to retest and validate the Head&Shoulder neckline
• February 2010 until June 2011 - Transelectrica price chart formed a "rising wedge" which implies the buyers aren't forceful enough to push the price on an powerful uptrend. It broke down from this pattern in July 2011 and re-testing the Head&Shoulder neckline.

Right now the price will oscillate between the 14 RON neckline support and 21 RON given by the break-out of the rising wedge formation. Where the price will take it it will show the future trend.
My advice is BUY if the price moves over 22 RON and SELL if the price breaks the neckline at 14 RON.


Have a great day everybody!

Property Fund (FP) chart review

After the break of the one year long downtrend FP chart makes a small FLAG which implies more gains to the upside. Maybe at 0.55 or 0.60 area.

Cheers everybody!

Fibonacci levels on BET-FI

After any uptrend appears corrections. Nobody knows with precision the amplitude in time and price of this corrections. But if it is a correction it should stop at some levels and restart the trend moving higher. Fibonacci levels represent retracement level of 38,2% , 50,0% and 61,8% of the previous trend.

For BET-FI very important level to see if the market rebounds is around 22.000, which is given also by the 50 and 200 days moving averages and also by the uptrend line.
If the price breaks down the level around 20.000 than this wasn't a correction and was a trend change and the prices will go more down to retest the lows around 16.000
The MACD indicator shows a powerful momentum up and is normal in bull markets for this indicator to reach new highs on an uptrend and then came down to neutral in the corrections. This is the case right now, it reached  new highs and right now seems like its turning implying corrections ahead.


Have a great day everybody!

Bucharest Stock Exchange 15 Feb 2012 Day Review

Today the capital markets were filled with a plethora of economic news and were very volatile:

Internationally:

•          Overnight China central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said "the country would keep investing in debt issued by euro-zone governments" which helped the international sentiment at the markets open
•          Greece saga continued with rumors that opposition leader Samaras will sign a letter to the troika (ECB, IMF and EU Commission) and will commit to the tough austerity reforms  -  towards the middle of the day this rumors came true and helped the positive sentiment.
•          French and German GDP came better than expected at +0,2% and -0,2% Q/Q
•          In UK the unemployment rate came in line with the estimate at 8,4%
•          Euro zone GDP for the fourth quarter came in at -0,3% Q/Q
•          In US the Empire State Manufacturing Index for the month of February came in at 19,5
•          The Industrial Production in US for the month of January came unchanged

In Romania:

• Romanian GDP for fourth quarter shrunk 0,2% from the previous quarter but gained 2,5% for the full year 2011 compared to the previous year
• Property Fund (FP) ended the year 2011 with a 543 Mil RON Net Profit and proposed a dividend to the shareholders of 0.038 which means at the current share price of 0.528 RON a Net dividend yield of 7,2%
• Transelectrica (TEL) posted 90.2 Mil RON Net Profit for the full year 2011
• SIF Transilvania (SIF3) posted a huge 207 Mil RON Net Profit buoyed by the selling of their BCR participation
• Transgaz (TGN) posted a 392 Mil RON Net Profit for the full year 2011
• SIF Moldova (SIF2) announced an increase in the shareholder equity with the sum of 103.817.917 Mil RON through the release of a new 1.038.179.176 shares with a nominal value of 0.1 RON per share
• Prodplast (PPL) has been reported buying 904.500 shares of SIF Oltenia (SIF5) at a 1.45 medium price per share

The Romanian markets started higher, propelled by the international markets.  But sellers appeared quickly and pushed the market in the negative territory. At mid-day the markets were flat but as the day progressed the markets moved deeper into negative territory, pushed down also by rumors that EU will delay its bailout plan to Greece, and stayed into negative teriory with the main indexes BET and BET-FI closing at -1,09% and -1,78%

Romanian markets gained an average 40% from the start of the year and after this impressive rally in just a month and a half, it's normal for sellers to become more powerful and cash the profits. There are also some other momentum indicators on charts that shows some weakening of this remarkable uptrend. But so far any pullback of this movement  can be considered a correction until it breaks some important levels.  Around 4.500 on the BET Index and 22.000 on the BET-FI.

Next you'll see the 60 minute charts of the main Romanian Indexes BET and BET-FI with a short description of their components:

BET Index is the main index of Bucharest Stock Exchange -It contains the followings with their respective weigh on the index:

·         OMV Petrom (SNP)                             21,51%

·         Property Fund (FP)                              21,21%

·         Transilvania Bank (TLV)                       20,18%

·         BRD Groupe Societe Generale (BRD)   17,64%

·         Transgaz (TGN)                                   7,22%

·         Bursa de Valori (BVB)                          3,44%

·         Transelectrica (TEL)                             3,36%

·         Biofarm (BIO)                                      2,82%

·        Azomures (AZO)                                  2,12%

·         SSIF Broker (BRK)                              0,51%

BET-FI is the second most important index of Bucharest Stock Exchange - The FI at the end comes from Financial. It covers the five SIFs (Financial Investment Societies) and recently has been added the Property Fund. So this is what is contains with their weigh on the index.


·         Property Fund (FP)                                         27,32%
·         SIF Oltenia (SIF5)                                          16,66%
·         SIF Moldova (SIF2)                                       15,27%
·         SIF Transilvania (SIF3)                                   14,63%
·         SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1)                               13,68%
·         SIF Muntenia (SIF4)                                      12,44%

Have a great day everybody!